U.S. Department of Justice Study on the Effectiveness of CeaseFire Chicago

The Department of Justice report validates the CeaseFire model as an evidence-based intervention that reduces shooting and killings and makes communities safer.  The report found the program “effective” with “significant” and “moderate to large impact,” and with effects that are “immediate.”

Summary of the Results – CeaseFire Chicago intervention is effective at:

• Decreasing shootings and killings
  • 41-73% drops in shootings and killings in CeaseFire zones.
  • 16- 35% drop in shootings directly attributable to CeaseFire.
    
    
• Decreasing retaliatory murders
  • 100% reductions in retaliation murders in 5 of 8 neighborhoods.
    
    
• Making shooting “hot spots” cooler
  • “In every program area there was a substantial decline in the median density of shootings following the introduction of CeaseFire.”

• Effectively helping highest risk youth
  • 85 – 99% of high-risk clients needing help, received help from CeaseFire.
  • Clients received help in getting jobs, education, drug treatment, and more.
  • 99% of clients reported that CeaseFire had a positive effect on their lives.
    
    
• Making neighborhoods safer
  • A positive effect on neighborhood safety was shown in every community studied.

 

Summary of the Report Methods – Report was thorough and comprehensive:

• The study took three years to complete with the involvement of four universities.

•  The study employed 4 types of statistical analysis – all methods showed effectiveness.
  •  Time series analysis  - analysis of effect on the trend in shootings rates.
  •  Hot spot mapping analysis  - analysis of effect on areas with high shooting rates.
  •  Network analysis – analysis of effect on gang networks.
  •  In-depth interviews of CeaseFire clients, staff, community.
    
    
• Documents intervention as effective and evidence-based.

                                                                                      
“I found the statistical results to be as strong as you could hope for.”
- Prof. Wes Skogan; Department of Justice study lead investigator; quoted in New York Times Magazine, May 4, 2008.